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Niko80
Austria
140 Posts
Posted - May 06 2013 :  5:20:19 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
My apologies beforehand to all of you who are unfamiliar with statistics (I don't claim to fully understand it either), still I hope I can show you something you haven't seen before!

One of the many mysteries of the FED1 (and probably many other models) is how camera and lens serials could be related and if there is some pattern that would allow predicting a certain lens serial range from only the camera and vice versa.

I have a FED-S d with an odd 4digit serial and wondered if the lens serial could shed some light on this issue.
See here:
http://ussrphoto.com/Forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=2348

My hypothesis was that the No.2570 might mean that the first and last digit went missing, making the true serial "12570x".

Getting bored while working on my PhD thesis, I instead ran some statistical analyses on the correlation between camera serials and lens serials in FED-S cameras listed in the Wiki.

I got 40 samples - 14x FED-c, 22xFED-d and 4x FED-e.

If we plot the camera s/n on the x-axis and the lens s/n on the y-axis we get a scatterplot which looks like this:



While there are some datapoints far out in the middle of nowhere, most seem to group pretty nicely in the middle.
The orange point would be my #2570 assuming it is #12570x.

The red regression line tries to fit a linear relationship between lens and camera s/n depicted in the formula below, while r^2 measures how well this model fits our actual datapoints - with 1 being a perfect correlation and 0 no correlation a all. We get r^2 of 0,75 which is pretty good but not extraordinary. Since many datapoints lie far above or below the line it misses most of them.


Next I did something you should not really do in statistics - I excluded all far off datapoints to see if we could get a better fit and thereby a model that would explain most camera:lens relationships. Of the original 40 camera/lens pairs only 25 remained.
Excluded datapoints are drawn smaller.



The red regression line now crosses most of our datapoints resulting in a r^2=0,992 - an excellent correlation.
The corresponding formula to calculate lens-camera s/n relationship would be:

camera=(lens-15425)x10
lens=15425+camera/10

Feel free to try it out on the FED-S cameras listed in the wiki


Still we see that the datapoints form more of a slight arc than a straight line so I fit a logarithmic curve to the same
25 datapoints, which resulted of an even better match of r^2=0,999



The corresponding formula would be:

lens=25269xlog10(camera)-100030

A bit more difficult, but still easy with a calculator. Again you can try it out on any FED-S camera-lens pair in the wiki to see how good the model fits.
The dotted red line is the 95% confidence interval, meaning that according to the model, 95% of samples should lie within these boundaries. Indeed all of the datapoints do, only the excluded ones are outside.


Now what does all of this mean?
I'm afraid not very much…

.) I think there is a general relation between lens and camera s/n even though there are exceptions which don't fit in very well

.) The theory that my camera #2570 is missing first and last digits (#12570x) seems possible as there are at least 2 examples with similar lens:camera s/n ratios

.) The amount of cameras which seem to have "younger" lenses than average (above red line) seems to be about the same as the amount of cameras which seem to have "older" lenses than average (below red line)

.) By no means do I claim that this model is suitable to determine "matching" or "wrong" camera-lens pairs, we know virtually nothing about how they were paired in the factory. All we can say is, that at least the 2 points high above (1c 76862/27890 and 1d 107723/31185 as well as the point far below the regression line (1d 158978/24761) seem to be quite unusual.

.) There might be a nonlinear relation between camera and lens s/n indicating that in the beginning more lenses than cameras were produced but this is more than speculative.

.) Finally: all of these results are likely to change with more datapoints.
The 40 camera-lens pairs are a good start but twice as much would be a lot better. If you have a FED-S or know someone who does - please submit the camera and lens s/n to the wiki.
If you don't want to reveal the full s/n for whatever reason you can replace the last digits with "x", this is irrelevant for statistics on this scale.

I'd love to do the same thing for "normal" FED1 but therefore I need you to provide a lot more camera:lens s/n to the wiki, currently there almost none listed.

Regards,
Christian

Edited by - Niko80 on May 06 2013 5:27:30 PM
Jacques M.
France
1163 Posts
Posted - May 08 2013 :  04:12:08 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Hi Christian!

All my thanks for your work. No doubt it will be useful for all the collectors of Fed 1...

I had tried to do something like your work some years ago. My aim was to see if there is a regularity of distribution lens/body. At that time, my guess was that Fed (or another factory) had made the c. 13000 2/5cm lenses in two batches of c. 5000. And a last one, a bit later, of c. 3000.

Anyway, there is something strange. The last 3000 lenses are in the range 30/33000. And this range is occupied too by the 6,3/100mm (from 30xxx to 39xxx). Two lenses at the same time in the same range: it's impossible in a planified economy. Hence the supposition that they had to make more S than planified. Why?...

As for S-s, absolutely no regularity. We meet them from the early 1c to the last 1e. And I was told that some rare early 1f have the 1/1000th too. Exactly like the early 1948 Fed Zorki: KMZ won't use the 1/1000th on their Zorki 1 later... The 1/1000th shutter boxes used by KMZ have probably a prewar Fed origin.

I had tried too to establish a sort of "truth line" which roughly corresponds to your first graphic. But I know nothing about statistics...

Good luck for your work, and thanks!
I will look at the wiki to see if I can complete the Fed S section.

Amitiés. Jacques.

Edited by - Jacques M. on May 08 2013 04:13:37 AM
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Niko80
Austria
140 Posts
Posted - May 08 2013 :  6:45:10 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Thanks for your comment, Jacques.

I doubt my statistics are of much use at the current level but maybe it may lead us to something we haven't seen or thought of before.

Can you give us some more details about your theories?
Why the 2 batches of 5.000 lenses and one of 3.000?

Also you are right, 50/2 and 100/6.3 serials do overlap.
I didn't notice that before and plan to create a graph on all these lens serials in the next days.

The most straightforward explanation which comes to my mind is that the demand for the 50/2 lens was greater than expected when production started so they ended up with overlapping the serial range of the 100/6.3.
Remember that the statistics suggest that in the beginning lens s/n increased faster than camera s/n.

Looking at the distribution of the lens numbers we have (I updated the wiki on the 50/2 lens), it seems all serials between 20.000 and 33.000 were used and there were no major gaps.

This would mean that about 13.000 50/2 lenses were produced but (at least that's what is said) only about 2.000 FED-S cameras. Personally I think this number is too low, but let's assume it to be true for the moment.

This leads to the main question:
What happened to the 10.000+ surplus lenses?

Of course they could be used on any FED camera if collimated correctly but I've never seen a "standard" FED1 with the 50/2 lens.
However they are being sold separately now and then, I found 3 lenses on ebay. I'm not sure if this is enough to account for the "missing" lenses, but it seems there is about the same amount left as of the 28mm, 50 macro and 100mm lenses, which is not really much considering that about twice as much 50/2 lenses should have been produced.


As for the FED-S serial numbers - also no clue.
It seems they were producing one now and then when they were in the mood but without any pattern.

.)Maybe the mechanism for the 1/1000 was difficult to produce or required special materials (I have no idea about camera machanics ) so they only were able to make small quantities now and then.

.) Or they were just produced on demand for special persons/occasions.

Perhaps we'll never know, I wish there was still someone who worked in the factory left ti interview.

Regards,
Christian
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Jacques M.
France
1163 Posts
Posted - May 12 2013 :  11:39:21 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote

I think that 10000 Fed 2/50mm were planned first.
As it is the only lens put on S-s, that means that 10000 S-s were to be made first. And probably due to the demand, some 3000 more were delivered (with 3000 2/50mm more made, of course).

So, some 12/13000 S-s (from 1c to 1e) and 2/50mm were made. About the 1/1000th shutter box, it is interesting to note that KMZ used this speed on some on their 1948 (and perhaps 1949) Fed-Zorki. These shutter boxes probably come from Fed S surplus. KMZ didn't use that speed after on the Zorki 1 and the paint of their shutter box is bright, not crisp like on 1/500th KMZ shutter boxes.

Of course, no proof about all that. But it would explain why 2/50mm are very hard to find alone. For my part, I never saw a 2/50 for sale alone with a special passport...

We had several discussions about this question some years ago. But the wiki was far less important...

Amitiés. Jacques.
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Christopher Sabine
ChrisS
Spain
29 Posts
Posted - May 13 2013 :  02:50:04 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Hi Christian

Here are more Fed-S details from my own collection

Body Fed-S (type D) no 131794
Lens Fed 2/50 no 28904

This seems to fit well with your other plots. Very interesting thread - thanks.

ATB Chris.

(PS - I've added this camera to the Wiki entry, but the table seems to be operating in double line spacing and I can find no way to get rid of the blank line. Can someone help please ... ... Thanks)

Edited by - ChrisS on May 13 2013 03:16:14 AM
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Jacques M.
France
1163 Posts
Posted - May 13 2013 :  08:42:17 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote

Christian,

I have just added some Fed S I had still in my data. Most part come from eBay.
I had tried to find a "line of truth" between Fed S bodies and 2/50mm lens. A sort of regular arithmetic progression corresponding to your red line. 15/36 (in my data) were OK.
But you do far better with your "confidence interval"!

Jacques.
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Niko80
Austria
140 Posts
Posted - May 13 2013 :  3:20:47 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Chris,
thanks for your contribution!

The only way to prevent the double line spacing when editing the wiki is to click the "Source" button, this way you see the entry in code. Probably there is a better solution, but I don't know much about website design.
I'd love to have the option to put the serial data in tables so they are easier to edit and more comfortable to view.

----------

Jacques,
so you think about 12.000 FED-S cameras were made?
This would make sense but why is everyone stating that not more than 2.000 were produced?
This is found on almost all related websites including Wikipedia. Is there a source for this statement or how was this conclusion reached?

I've read that it was indeed very difficult to produce the 1/1000s shutter setting as the gap between curtains is extremely narrow at this speed which makes it difficult to achieve an even exposure.
This is probably the reason why the design was given up soon after the war.

Another interesting question came to my mind recently:
How was quality control handled at the FED factory?
I assume it was still quite good in these days, so what happened to lens/cameras that did not pass the test (an the corresponding serials)?
As these faulty items could not be sold they were probably either repaired or, if impossible, disassembled for spare parts, which means that not all serials really correspond to equipment which left the factory.
Unfortunately I have no idea how much percent are typically discarded in quality control but probably in the beginning the amount was quite high and decreased as workers got more experienced.

----------

Also, Jacques,
I noticed there are some FED-S with Sonnar lenses (also seen in FED-NKAP).
http://www.dvdtechcameras.com/collect/fed/1/5.htm

Interestingly one FED-e in the wiki has a Sonnar-serial which seems to overlap with those of the FED 50/2 lenses.
1e (BERDSK)181306 33048 Sonnar Cl. Asquini.
I don't know if this is a mistake but I'll exclude this entry from my statistics.

Edited by - Niko80 on May 13 2013 4:28:06 PM
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Jacques M.
France
1163 Posts
Posted - May 14 2013 :  04:52:56 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I don't remember if I saw this number of production (c. 12000)somewhere else. But for me, it is the only way to calculate the number of S-s. One must remember too that it's almost impossible to find a 2/50 lens or a S body alone...

About the 1/1000th speed, you are right to say that the gap is difficult to regulate. Fed's tools were less precise than Leitz's ones. For example, Fed used till the end bolts with two notches only to regulate the shutters (4 for the Zorki 1, 4 then 6 for the Leica 2), S-s included.

I think too that the S is probably the first camera to be standardized (lenses are dedicated on plain NKVD). The 4,5/28mm and the 6,3/100mm were specially made for the S and it would not make sense if lenses were not really interchangeable. Leitz had done it as soon as 1932 (we are in 1938) and in that matter, it's too a question of precision of machine tools.
I made experiments on a S body which works well (different "S" lenses mounted on this body) and the pictures are OK. But of course it is not enough...

As for Claudio Asquini's 1e S, the lens is a Sonnar block mounted on the rear part of a 2/50mm Fed. The serial number belongs to the Fed ring. It's me who put it in the wiki.

Amitiés. Jacques.

Edited by - Jacques M. on May 14 2013 04:55:22 AM
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Niko80
Austria
140 Posts
Posted - May 14 2013 :  3:27:37 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Thanks for lifting the mystery of the FED Sonnar!
This means an original lens with this serial existed, I will add it to my statistics.

I do not think the FED-S cameras were really standardized like Leicas.
Maybe camera and lenses could be matched at the shop where you bought the additional lenses, they probably also repaired cameras so they should have the knowledge and equipment.
Don't have the means to measure the lens register of my cameras, I'll see if I can get a caliper from university. My 28mm f/4.5 lens would not focus at infinity on 2 cameras. I had it (as well as the 100mm f/6.3 and the 50mm macro) collimated for the camera I use for fotography, now they work perfectly. Yuri from Fedka told me it was in fact easier to re-collimate lenses than to set the cameras to the standard register of 28.8mm which I originally wanted him to do.

Edited by - Niko80 on May 14 2013 4:29:23 PM
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vorobaz
5 Posts
Posted - May 20 2013 :  1:13:26 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Hi! My Fed-S attestat:

camera s/n: 65839
fed 50/2 lens s/n: 21453



Edited by - vorobaz on May 20 2013 1:13:58 PM
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Jacques M.
France
1163 Posts
Posted - May 20 2013 :  2:16:05 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote

Many thanks!
An attestat (or a passport) for a Fed S is always precious and rare!

And welcome here...

Jacques.
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Niko80
Austria
140 Posts
Posted - May 23 2013 :  3:25:25 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Very nice, Serhio!
Thanks for your contributions to the wiki.

I have updated my graphs, we now have 48 camera-lens pairs:
17x FED-S'c', 27x FED-S'd' and 4x FED-S'e'



As expected nothing new, the recent additions lie rather close to the regression line.

Again the same old 15 datapoints were excluded as unusual to get a better regression (shown darker):



And again the logarithmic regression with 95% confidence interval - a single new point now barely lies outside the dotted red line which is still fine.



The most interesting find are 2 very close type 'd' serials, the points almost completely overlap.:

Camera Lens

131794 28904
132262 28946

I hope we can get some more type 'e' serials, we only have 4 until now.

Regards,
Christian

Edited by - Niko80 on May 23 2013 3:27:39 PM
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Michael Schub
outfitter
USA
7 Posts
Posted - Jun 27 2013 :  8:30:18 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by vorobaz

Hi! My Fed-S attestat:

camera s/n: 65839
fed 50/2 lens s/n: 21453






I have Fed-S camera # 65769 and f50/2 lens #21118
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Michael Schub
outfitter
USA
7 Posts
Posted - Jun 27 2013 :  8:35:04 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I should add:
Fed-S camera #145843; f50/2 lens #24466

I also have an unusual body (#172220) that has the 1/1000th speed marked with a line but the speed is not engraved. It came with an f50/2 lens (#28534) that is coated and is not in register with the body but works well on post-war Soviet LTM bodies.

Thank you for your great charts
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Jacques M.
France
1163 Posts
Posted - Jun 28 2013 :  04:05:19 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote

Very interesting!
Really, we lack these Fed S passports.

About your s/n 172220, does the 1/1000th work, even if the speed is not engraved? I suppose it is always a "d"? The "e" begin at c. 173600.

Thanks! Jacques.
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Niko80
Austria
140 Posts
Posted - Jun 30 2013 :  6:42:59 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Thank you, Michael!

I will integrate your data in the next update of my graphs, we already have a couple of new camera-lens serial pairs.

In both of your cameras, the lens serial is unusually low compared to what we would expect from the camera serial - or the other way round.

Could you provide pictures of the unusual camera and lens?
The #28534 lens serial lies amidst the usual range of FED "d" cameras, so it seems strange that it is coated and registered for post-war cameras.
Your camera #172220 would be the highest FED-S type"d" serial we have in the wiki.

Regards,
Christian

Edited by - Niko80 on Jun 30 2013 6:48:32 PM
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Niko80
Austria
140 Posts
Posted - Jul 25 2013 :  7:16:30 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Another strange FED-S
http://www.ebay.com/itm/The-rarest-russian-camera-FED-S-NKVD-1-1000-lens-2-50-Leica-copy-case-2092-/181183459655

Type'c' No#2092 with lens serial #33128

This is the 4th FED-S with serial engraving error, also the lens would better fit in the late Berdsk-range than for Type'c'.
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Jacques M.
France
1163 Posts
Posted - Jul 28 2013 :  11:49:53 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote

I am not convinced by the "engraving errors": they are too numerous if we add the chapter "Fed 1b-unusual serial numbers" in the wiki.

We had discussed about that question a while ago. If I remember correctly, we had found two possible explanations: important repairs under warranty or upgrading at any time. Leitz had done just the same for their LTM cameras: put the former serial number on the new camera.

That would not exclude the always possible engraving errors, of course...

Jacques.
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Niko80
Austria
140 Posts
Posted - Jul 29 2013 :  8:21:25 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Indeed, we simply do not know what happened here.
The camera #2092 seems to be a mixture of different parts.

The problem with the repair / upgrade scenario:
Why do we mostly see 4-digit serials?
Why no FED'e' with late 'c' or 'd' serial or vice versa?

The war-time commissar's camera I inherited from my grandfather might be such a case.
It has a FED-1'c' YCCP top plate #60570 / Lens# 99697/55
and a brass shutter cage with a hole in the pressure plate.
But all other features are from FED-'d'
.) Big bolt for bottom plate holder
.) No screws under rewind knob
.) top front center screw (near the lens rim) completely visible

He had the camera repaired in Vienna after the war, as the shutter was not working properly, so some parts may be from Leica. He guessed it to be from approx. 1936 which would even be too early for the serial.
I'll post photos in a separate thread.


As for My FED-S #2570 / Lens# 25237/10:
I've sent it to Yuri for CLA and asked them to check for unusual parts - they found none. It's a normal FED'd'
.) Shutter cage: aluminium
.) Number '5' stamped on bottom of shutter cage
.) Hole in pressure plate
.) Rivets in catch of the lock for base plate
.) Big bolt for bottom plate holder
.) No screws under rewind knob
.) top front center screw (near the lens rim) completely visible

I have no idea what to make of this.
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Jacques M.
France
1163 Posts
Posted - Jul 30 2013 :  05:42:23 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I have only some general ideas to propose.
Of course, all we can say about all that is "perhaps" or "maybe"...

1- Upgradings are possible. Zeiss and Leitz did so for their Contaxes and Leicas I and II. So, why not Fed? I have, let us say, a 1a. I want an S and give my 1a in exchange (and money!)

2- Repairings are possible too. Zeiss repaired complete series of their Contax I which was absolutely not reliable. We can imagine the same for Fed which had not experience in cameras. So, I resend my 1a which does not work and I receive a perfect 1b with the ancient s/n. Under warranty. But why not after warranty, too?

3- Errors too are possible. For sure, we know some: a "5" more stamped on a lens, a cipher more on an accessory, two letters less on the plate of a Fed 2... But certainly these errors are not so numerous: difficult in a planned economy...

4- Of course, we were not there on those days. But nowadays the rare Fed are sought after and it is not very difficult to make one from spare parts and sell it at a good price... BTW, the 1a we spoke of in another thread has disappeared: sold!

Amitiés. Jacques.
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Niko80
Austria
140 Posts
Posted - Aug 29 2013 :  3:36:06 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Time for an update...

We now have 54 FED-S lens/camera pairs:
18x FED-S'c'
30x FED-S'd'
06x FED-S'e'



We still see that many datapoints are clustered along a line in the middle, but instead of a linear and logarithmic relation between camera and lens serial number it looks more like we have two subsets:


The relation between FED-S'c' serials seems to rise steeper than the relation between FED-S'd' serials.
Not much can be said for FED-S'e', still only 6 widely distributed datapoints. It seems a wide variety of earlier lenses were used for the FED-S'e'

Now what can we do with these datasets:

The steeply rising red line was laid through the FED-S'c' datapoints clustered in the middle the ones far out were omitted. If we believe it to represent the "usual" relation between lens and camera s/n, and assume that the lowest lens serial was #20.000 we can extrapolate that the lowest FED-S serial should be in the region where the red line cuts the x-axis, around #53.000. This matches nicely with the FED'c' serial range starting around 54.400 according to sovietcams.
This serial range also matches with the start of FED-S production in 1938.

The lowest FED-S camera/lens pair we have is around 59.000 but according to the wiki we have several cameras in the range 22.000 - 25.000 and one around 40.000, unfortunately without lens serials. Do we know if any are true 'b' instead of 'c'?
The #25949 is a FED'c' for sure.
So there are more serial mysteries, apart from the 4-digit ones.

Edited by - Niko80 on Aug 29 2013 3:44:10 PM
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Jacques M.
France
1163 Posts
Posted - Aug 30 2013 :  07:59:41 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote

I have never seen a 1b S camera: certainly true ones don't exist. Even the odd serial numbers of S have a 1c or 1d cover with angles. That said, it seems that some 2/50mm have a curious s/n: 189 confirmed (owned by a friend) for the body s/n 2013... And the owner of the s/n 56041 only said to me "3 numbers.8B" for his 2/50mm...

Concerning the limit between 1b and 1c: the last 1b is the s/n 54223 and the first 1c is the 54369 by my data. I own the s/n 54223 which is in fact a transition model with the cover of a 1b and a "drop shaped" tip of rangefinder.

Your conclusions are right. The only real interrogations concern the 1a and 1b serial numbers: we have several explanations, but none is proved.

Amitiés. Jacques.



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geoffox23
Australia
7 Posts
Posted - Sep 05 2013 :  3:53:21 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Hi Jacques

I have another of these "curious" 2/50mm, with serial number 180, which also has a "toadstool" shape infinity release button and an unusual type of guide tube.

An identical lens shows up in "LEICA COPIES" by H.P.R on page 309, and another similar one in "1200 Cameras" attached to FED-S #70883 on page 388, although the latter has the normal knurled guide tube.

Do you recall which style of button is on lens 189?

Cheers
Geoff
http://www.ussrphoto.com/UserContent/592013_IMG_0018.jpg


Edited by - geoffox23 on Sep 05 2013 3:56:56 PM
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geoffox23
Australia
7 Posts
Posted - Sep 05 2013 :  4:21:16 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
And here is the rear view with s/n


http://www.ussrphoto.com/UserContent/592013_2-50 crop.jpg

Cheers
Geoff
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geoffox23
Australia
7 Posts
Posted - Sep 05 2013 :  7:53:20 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Hi Christian

For your data-list, the seller of FED-S #148495 advises that lens #30650 is attached.

Cheers
Geoff

Edited by - geoffox23 on Sep 05 2013 7:54:10 PM
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Jacques M.
France
1163 Posts
Posted - Sep 06 2013 :  03:25:57 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Hi Geoff,

I will ask my friend about the 2/50mm s/n 189 and its infinity button.

I don't understand about the guide tube: yours seems normal?
Concerning the serial number, it seems you don't have the main one which should be at the reverse of the f stop. Probably it was forgotten. Or arased for some problem of regulation.

Amitiés. Jacques.
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geoffox23
Australia
7 Posts
Posted - Sep 06 2013 :  04:18:21 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Thanks Jacques

Other than the two lenses mentioned and mine, every other 2/50mm I've seen has the "doorbell" button and full knurled tube. I'm interested to know which style is on #189.

Appreciate your help.

Cheers
Geoff
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Jacques M.
France
1163 Posts
Posted - Sep 06 2013 :  05:31:08 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote

OK for the "doorbell" button which is the regular one.
But I don't understand what you mean by "full knurled tube"... Yours on the photo is perfectly regular and I don't know other types.

Jacques.
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geoffox23
Australia
7 Posts
Posted - Sep 06 2013 :  06:02:24 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
This is what I mean by doorbell button and full knurled tube.


http://www.ussrphoto.com/UserContent/692013_$T2eC16NHJGoFFu9UFVGOBR5-u,Qknw~~60_3.JPG

Geoff
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Niko80
Austria
140 Posts
Posted - Sep 06 2013 :  5:35:55 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Thanks, Geoff,
I've added the serial to the wiki.

I will come up with some more interesting details from the statistics in the next days. As usual there are more questions than answers.

Two more things:
.)I've marked all serials up to the 55.xxx entry as "unusual" as they do not represent 1b but 1c cameras.
.)I think we should remove the category of authenticity, as it is not defined what + or ++ is supposed to mean.
What do you think?

Regards,
Christian

Edited by - Niko80 on Sep 06 2013 5:41:08 PM
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Jacques M.
France
1163 Posts
Posted - Sep 08 2013 :  3:40:31 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
OK, Geoff, I had not understand it was the tube of the infinity button you were speaking of... I will ask my friend as soon as he is back.

About the + and ++, they were supposed to be signs of credibility, at least at the beginning... The ++ was for the "authentic" cameras = the ones we owned or those we had had in our hands. The + for those which had been seen on the net and which seemed genuine.

With the inflation of s/n for some cameras and for other reasons, it means nothing now. So, I agree with you. But perhaps it would be preferable to have first the opinion of some other members? Vlad first, of course...

Amitiés. Jacques.

Edited by - Jacques M. on Sep 08 2013 3:44:32 PM
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Jacques M.
France
1163 Posts
Posted - Sep 13 2013 :  08:46:53 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote

Nobody has answered. So, we can think that all are OK!
So, please, Christian...
Thanks!

Jacques.
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Niko80
Austria
140 Posts
Posted - Sep 13 2013 :  7:28:28 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Ok, I've deleted the authenticity-data, I think the wiki-entry looks better now.

Here's some better graph to explain the current situation:



Note that the scale for lens and camera serials is different, in each square of the graph the camera serial rises per 10.000 while the lens serial rises only per 1.000 or 1/10.

As said we seem to have a different lens-camera relation in FED1'c' (left of the black vertical line) and FED1'd' cameras (right).


Here each square represents 1000 camera serials and 1000 lens serials.

FED1'c':for about 6.000 camera serials the lens serials rise by 1.000 -> every 6th - 7th camera is fitted with a lens
Serial range 55.000-95.000 -> about 6000 FED-S

Note that this model estimates the earliest FED-S to be around 53.500 (where the red line reaches the bottom of the graph, the lowest possible lens serial of 20.000) which is too low. So the line should actually be a bit steeper. Hopefully this gets better when we have more late 'c' serials.


FED1'd': for about 10.000 camera serials the lens serials rise by 1.000 -> every 10th - 11th camera is fitted with a lens
Serial range 95.000-173500 -> about 7500 FED-S
However a significant part of cameras (about 1/4) seems to have earlier lenses (points far below the red line) and doesn't fall into this model so there might be more. Anyway, most points seem to group very close to the line which makes this a pretty good model. Not much should change with additional serials.



FED1'e': we don't have enough cameras to estimate a model here, but a lot of cameras also seems to have earlier lenses.
Serial range 173.500-184.000 -> very likely only a few hundred FED-S

If we sum this up we get about 13.500 FED-S cameras, which matches the range of lenses produced -> 20.000-34.000. This model probably overestimates the total number of FED-S'c' cameras and underestimates 'type'd' as we know very little about possible gaps in production and what's going on in late 'c' and the total of 'e' models.

Anyway it's a nice indication that we should not be on a totally wrong track here.

Conclusions:
.)It seems highly likely that far more than 2.000 FED-S were produced, more likely 10.000-13.000 depending on gaps.

.)Production procedure of cameras and/or lenses was changed dramatically between 'c' and 'd' model.
Lens-serial relation became much smoother in type'd', we see the datapoints are very close to the red regression line. In type'c' the datapoints are more clumped above or below the line. This may indicate that in the beginning larger batches of lenses and/or cameras were produced before assembly while in 'd' only small batches were produced and quickly assembled leaving less possibilities to scramble older lenses with newer cameras or vice versa.

.)I believe the datapoints far above or below the regression line indicate that these cameras had their lenses fitted at a later time or something else unusual happened here.
Note that you will never see two of these points close together. This makes sense as it would be very unlikely to create similar camera-lens pairs by freely combining the spare parts you find available, while it is more than likely if you have batches of cameras and lenses assembled in the factory.

Interestingly it is more common for cameras to have earlier lenses than having later lenses. This may indicate that a significant amount of lenses were "recycled" by matching them with cameras later produced. Either the original cameras had some defects and were replaced, or some lenses were sold singly without cameras so they could be used as spare parts. It would be highly interesting to know if it was possible to buy standalone lenses or cameras.

Please keep searching and submitting serials, our model will get better with every datapoint!

Regards,
Christian

Edited by - Niko80 on Sep 13 2013 8:28:39 PM
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Jacques M.
France
1163 Posts
Posted - Sep 14 2013 :  08:34:46 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote

The S entry is far better now...
And very happy that my idea of 12/13000 Fed S produced, rather than 2000, is gaining ground!

To complete all that, we should add too the Fed-KMZ and the Fed-Zorki with the 1/1000th, now we are sure they come from Kharkov, thanks to David Tomlinson. That was my other guess concerning the S.
So, c. 15000 S mechanisms could have been originally made. Impossible to be more precise: we don't know the number of Fed-Zorki with the 1/1000th... Only made in 1948, as it seems.

All that makes sense. Thanks, Christian.

Jacques.
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Niko80
Austria
140 Posts
Posted - Sep 15 2013 :  7:55:35 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Does anybody have an idea how and why the camera/lens serial relation could have changed between Type'c' and 'd' ?

Jacques, I remember you mentioned the 50mm f/2 lenses were maybe produced in 2 batches, the first being about 5000 lenses. This would match with the batch of the 5-6000 FED-S 'c'.


One more thing:
Do you think it would be better to put the current statistics graphs in the 1st post of this topic and remove the old ones, or leave it as it is?
Currently we have quite a lot of outdated graphs that don't really make sense or even give inaccurate information.

Regards,
Christian
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Jacques M.
France
1163 Posts
Posted - Sep 16 2013 :  4:34:33 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote

Just concerning the old graphs: if you cancel them, you will cancel the discussion too. A pity.
I think preferable to insert the last modified graph in the wiki in the Fed S chapter, revised from time to time...
If it is possible...

Jacques.
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Niko80
Austria
140 Posts
Posted - Sep 16 2013 :  6:48:17 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Yes, that seems like a good option.
But that would mean that old graphs would have to be removed from the Wiki which only Vlad can do.
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Bill Parkinson
nightphoto
USA
957 Posts
My Collection

Posted - Sep 17 2013 :  01:19:13 AM  Show Profile  Visit nightphoto's Homepage  Reply with Quote
I am wondering ... if there were approximately 120,000 FED-1 cameras produced during this period of FED-S production and there were approximately 12,000 FED-S examples produced, that would make a ratio of nine regular FED-1 cameras to every one FED-S. To me, this does not seem to be the ratio that I see as a collector and from looking at FED-1 cameras on Ebay over the past ten years. It seems like there would be more FED-S cameras seen for sale than are seen from this serial number range.

What do other members think about their feeling of what has been seen of FED-S amounts compared to FED-1 amounts from that serial number range?

I have not kept records of all serial numbers of the FED-1 cameras that I have seen from this period (Serial No. 60,000 to 180,000) so I can not say for certain, but I am pretty sure that I have seen many more than nine FED-1 cameras for every one FED-S.

I'm not trying to make trouble with your theory Jacques ... you may be right, but the graphs and lens serial numbers (although helpful) may not accurately portray the story, or the whole story, as it really is. For example, sometimes serial numbers are made as 'codes' not just starting at a certain number and progressing evenly. To know for sure, the factory information concerning how to read the serial numbers of a specific production must be identified and confirmed. Many serial numbers may start with a year, or a batch number, or even skip large amounts of numbers that were never made or were destroyed, etc.

Also, in this case, I believe it was a time at the FED Zavod where many accessories were being made for the first time and the FED-S was part of a sort of more sophisticated system. There was a panoramic head, exposure meter, telephoto lens, wide angle lens, sports finder, and right angle finder. All had serial numbers and it might be that some F.2.0 50mm lenses were also made to be used even without the FED-S camera. I have seen many being sold without a FED-S, especially in the earlier days of collecting before the FED-S became so valuable and they were being matched to FED-S bodies by sellers because they would sell for much more together (the graphs probably show these matches very well). It is always wise to look at the whole picture even when it may make it harder to figure out some of the answers. Personally I doubt that there were 12,000 FED-S cameras made, but it is just my feeling from looking, not fact or knowledge.

But I like the graphs very much and think they do represent an easy way to look at the data that has been collected so far! Sorry for the long post!

Regards, Bill

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Jacques M.
France
1163 Posts
Posted - Sep 17 2013 :  07:13:26 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote

You are a breaker of theory, Bill! But you might be right either...

I have just had a look at eBay. For the moment, there are 22 NKVD (1c to 1e) and only one S for sale. In june, they were 31 NKVD against 3 S. All that is of course too punctual to prove anything.

About my feeling, I don't know exactly. I think I have the tendancy to globalize the number of Fed 1 up to the model 1g. In that case, the ratio Fed 1/Fed S is not 1 to 10, of course... I wonder if all of us don't do the same.

I bought my first Fed exactly 8 years ago. But I don't remember having seen 2/50mm lenses sold alone in great numbers. 2 or 3 a year, perhaps... It's just the same for the S bodies equipped with an Industar 10. But 8 years ago, it seems to me that the S for sale were in much greater number than now.

The theory lies upon the number of 2/50mm lenses. I always have read and heard that this lens was exclusively made for the S (and the B!). So, number of 2/50mm = number of S (at 10 or 20% more or less). Now we know that certainly c. 13000 2/50 were made, the conclusion is evident. It's not the same for the other stuff made from 1938 which was prepared for all the cameras, not only the S.

The S were not made by regular batches (I have two consecutive bodies: S and NKVD). So, how were they "distributed" and regulated in the NKVD range? It's the mystery we must solve to prove anything...

That was my opinion.

Amitiés. Jacques.

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Niko80
Austria
140 Posts
Posted - Sep 17 2013 :  12:09:47 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Bill does have a valid and important point here, thanks for your post!
Mine are usually a lot longer...

Our theory - or rather hypothesis - relies on many variables we simply have to guess as we do not know. The estimated number of total FED-S of course implies that there are no gaps in serials and all 50mm f/2 lenses were fitted to a camera. However the 10.000-12.000 cameras are already a very careful lower estimate I made with the following points in mind:

.)Are there any gaps in camera- or lens serials? - we don't know but very large gaps are unlikely on the data we have. See the graphs in my next post for more.

.)Were all 50mm f/2 lenses sold with cameras?

If you look at the graphs, I believe that the majority of cameras, about 3/4, were matched with lenses at the factory. There is absolutely no way to explain the grouping along the regression line if people bought lenses separately and fitted them to their cameras at a later time.
Still that leaves 1/4 - 1/3 of cameras which I believe do not have their original lenses - whether they received new ones or were sold without a original one we do not know.

I've been considering the crazy idea of collecting all FED1 serials for quite some time now - and I think we should do it!
It will be a lot of work but I think it should be worth it as this should help us to get a better idea about the relation between FED1 and FED-S, possible gaps and about the way numbering was done in general. We already have started this for FED'e', so let's extend this for 'c' and 'd' as well. I'll be very interested about number ratio of cameras we see for sale compared to FED-S.

More about the likeliness of about 10.000 FED-S in my next post.

Regards,
Christian

Edited by - Niko80 on Sep 17 2013 12:11:22 PM
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Bill Parkinson
nightphoto
USA
957 Posts
My Collection

Posted - Sep 17 2013 :  12:37:08 PM  Show Profile  Visit nightphoto's Homepage  Reply with Quote
Hi Christian and Jacques and all,

I think the graphs are very important and collecting more and more data will make the picture clearer. My only concern is that the actual culture and circumstances of the manufacturing history of the Soviet Union during the Stalinist era, with the Five Year Plans and other pressures, restraints, and limitations, may not be the way we picture it. I believe that sometimes things like serial numbers were used to make actual production numbers look bigger, and other things like that. There were possibly serious consequences for not meeting quotas or production schedules during this time in Soviet history. And, serial numbers may have not been totally sequential, as can be seen in FED-1S. Even without political pressure and consequences, serial numbers have been meant more for internal use than for tracing history by collectors. In some societies and countries, and in some periods they are strictly adhered to and recorded by the factories, but I think in the USSR at this time things were not so simple and organized.

So my point is not to disregard any of the theories put forth here, especially with great work like the graphs by Christian and ideas by my friend Jacques! It is only not to jump to solid conclusions and decide they are fact without supporting evidence or knowledge. Unfortunately, the factory histories and direct knowledge is hard to come by after so much time. I can only hope that more collectors and knowledgeable people who are living in Russia may be able help shed light on these issues. (I am always interested in what Zoom can add to these questions of history of production!).

Regards, Bill

PS: You may notice that the image I use on my posts of Rasputin holding a camera has a FED-1S in his hands! (photo-shopped by me, of course)!

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Niko80
Austria
140 Posts
Posted - Sep 17 2013 :  2:11:03 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Again I totally agree with you, Bill.
The statistical model is only as good as the historical information it is built upon.
In fact the only truly scientific approach would be to research the history of the FED Factory. It would be great if anyone russian-speaking could try to contact the FED factory or search the city archives of Kharkov and Berdsk to see if anything comes up. Surely most documents were destroyed during the war but I am sure at least some fundamental production data will have survived. But this is something I cannot help with, neither do I live there nor do I speak the language.

Unfortunately, the idea that some sort of trickery was used to meet unrealistic production goals is quite likely.
However, no matter how clever the FED staff disguised their never-produced "ghost cameras", I am pretty sure they were not able to circumvent fundamental mathematical principles, so with enough data any large-scale oddities should become visible. However if only single or a few serials were skipped, but this quite often, this would be very hard to detect. In this case we'd have to work our way around from the number of cameras found today.

By the way - finally over 100 posts!
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Jacques M.
France
1163 Posts
Posted - Sep 17 2013 :  3:11:04 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I think we all agree... The history of a country cannot be reduced to some numbers collected 75 years after...

So, it would be good we could have some more details about the Plans during this period. Were they reached? What about the cameras? Certainly that time was not a period of lucidity about the production of goods: morale had to be absolutely preserved. At some periods, the lie was a doctrine, not only in the East...

I think like Bill that Zoom would be precious, if he can. Are there always real datas in the actual factory? It would be interesting to know...

We must not jump too easily to a conclusion. OK. My conclusion, for the moment, would be that the number of Princelle (2000 Fed S) is highly improbable. It's all I can do!

Amitiés. Jacques.
PS: Congrats for your 100 posts, Christian!



Edited by - Jacques M. on Sep 17 2013 3:15:48 PM
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Niko80
Austria
140 Posts
Posted - Sep 17 2013 :  3:15:46 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Thanks!
Truly, actual historical data would be extremely welcome!

Sorry for all my long posts, I just want to finish something I came up with in the past days that might be of interest.
About the number of cameras we find today vs. the total number we think were produced:

I was very surprised to come up with an estimated number of 10.000-14.000 FED-S cameras and a ratio of 10:1 for FED-S within FED'd', and even about 6-7:1 within FED'c'. Surely not every 6th FED'c' was an 'S'?

So far we have the serials of 115 FED-S cameras in the wiki.
If we assume a total number of FED-S cameras somewhere around 13.000 this would be a sample size 0,9% - meaning we'd have about 1% of all FED-S in the wiki.
For an estimate of 2.000 FED-S we'd have more than 17% of all cameras in the wiki which I think is unrealistic.

By type:
FED-S'c' - max. 46.000 cameras from total serial range, estimated 6.000 FED-S'c' from current statistics
38 entries in the wiki or about 0.6%

FED-S'd'- max.78.500 cameras from total serial range, estimated 7.500 FED-S'd' from current statistics
62 entries in the wiki or about 0.8%

FED-S'e' - max. 10.500 cameras from total serial range, no estimation but if we take the 'd' model, about 1000 FED-S'e'
15 entries in the wiki or about 1,5% - very rough estimate, more a guess!

What if we compare the wiki entries to other cameras we have serials of?

FED1'a' - max. 6.000 cameras from total serial range
45 entries in the wiki or at least 0.75%

FED1'e' incl 'S' - max. 10.500 cameras from total serial range
75 entries or at least 0,7%

FED NKAP - 1.800 estimated total cameras (based on what?)
11 entries or 0,6%

FED Zorki - max. 5.700 cameras from total serial range
37 entries or at least 0,6%

Fed1 Anniversary1654-1954 - 1.000 estimated total cameras (based on what?)
9 entries or 0,9%

Unfortunately all are rather special cameras and we do not know how many really were produced. But no matter what, surprisingly the sample size varies between 0,6% and 0,9% in all these cases.

Note that this neither tells us about possible gaps in serials nor about the total number of cameras produced. However what it does tell us is that based of the number of cameras found today, the numbering scheme of all these camera types seems to work similarly. If by far less cameras than serials actually were produced this should apply to all cameras.

Again, I am not trying to prove anything here, all I'm doing is extracting information that may be overlooked otherwise. Hope it helps.

Regards,
Christian

Edited by - Niko80 on Sep 18 2013 4:31:14 PM
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Bill Parkinson
nightphoto
USA
957 Posts
My Collection

Posted - Sep 17 2013 :  6:00:26 PM  Show Profile  Visit nightphoto's Homepage  Reply with Quote
Dear Christian,

Congratulations on 100 posts to the forum! Your charts and information are very valuable to the forum, collectors and probably the solving of some of the history of production! No one has done the work and great job that you have and I thank you for it.

Your last post is very interesting and helpful. Next I would wonder: How many cameras were lost during the war? How many were discarded or broken since the war (50 years since people seriously were collecting)? How many are still sitting around in attics and basements? How many in Russian and other collections where the collector has no interest in communicating data or experiences (I know there are many collectors like this)? Probably there is no way to estimate any of these hard questions, but in some way they play a part in our extrapolations of the data. Think about the story of how so many SPORT cameras were dumped in the river during the war so that the wood crates could be burned for heat and fire! If the story is true, that made a fairly common camera much more rare! And so many stories have not been told, like the exact way and which Zeiss parts were moved to Soviet Ukraine!

I would also like to know how the estimates of production numbers of certain cameras were obtained by Jean Loup Princelle and if he still believes them to be correct. I don't know him but if someone does, maybe they can ask him? It might help just to know, for example, if the 2,000 or less FED-S was just an estimate or from someone who actually knew this and told Princelle.

Regards, Bill

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Jacques M.
France
1163 Posts
Posted - Sep 18 2013 :  03:15:24 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote


... and how much Fed were thrown in a bin, just because they did not work, rather than repaired like a Leica...
I am going to ask Princelle about his estimations.

Jacques.
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Niko80
Austria
140 Posts
Posted - Sep 18 2013 :  6:56:02 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Jacques, Princelle's opinion would be very valuable, I hope you can arrange this. I'd like to know how he estimated 2.000 FED-S cameras.

Surely the majority of FED1 cameras ever produced do not exist anymore, no wonder after such a long time. It would seem logical that on average more 'S', NKAP, and other special cameras survived than normal FEDs as these were more valuable and surely more cared for as well as often offered for sale.

Anyway, searching online we seem to find about 0,5-1% of the serial range in pretty much all FED1 cameras we have so far. I've also added FED-Zorki.

What's strange is that in FED1'e' we have 60 normal cameras and 15 FED-S, that means 1/4 of all FED'e' we have are 'S'!

I'll start collecting 'c' and 'd' serials, let's see how this turns out. I'd expect a much lower rate of serials found, but that's just my guess.

Regards,
Christian


Edited by - Niko80 on Sep 18 2013 7:15:46 PM
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Jacques M.
France
1163 Posts
Posted - Sep 19 2013 :  03:38:43 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote

I sent Princelle a mail yesterday. Wait and see now...

About the number of S-s in the 1e range, it seems the S were not mounted with the same number rules as before, exactly as if the workers had used the last spare parts. This is valuable too for the great number of 1/1000th shutters amongst the Fed-Zorki.

All that makes sense if 1e were mounted at Krasnogorsk with the last prewar parts. Only a guess!

Another more simple possibility: it's easy -and interesting- to fake a 1e S with a cover of 1e and parts of S 1d...

Jacques.
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Niko80
Austria
140 Posts
Posted - Oct 03 2013 :  4:51:30 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Any news from Princelle, Jacques?
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Jacques M.
France
1163 Posts
Posted - Oct 04 2013 :  03:11:42 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote

No. I fear we won't have any.
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Niko80
Austria
140 Posts
Posted - Oct 07 2013 :  5:45:29 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Too bad...
But thanks for trying anyhow.

I am a bit disappointed by the amount of Type b-d cameras we have in the wiki so far, I expected to find more when searching online.
We'll see how things look in a couple of months but for now I think a FED-S : FED1 ratio of 1:10 seems quite realistic.

Please keep on adding serials!

Regards,
Christian
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