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FED-S camera and lens s/n needed for statistics

80 posts in this thread showing replies 41-60 of 79
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Again I totally agree with you, Bill.
The statistical model is only as good as the historical information it is built upon.
In fact the only truly scientific approach would be to research the history of the FED Factory. It would be great if anyone russian-speaking could try to contact the FED factory or search the city archives of Kharkov and Berdsk to see if anything comes up. Surely most documents were destroyed during the war but I am sure at least some fundamental production data will have survived. But this is something I cannot help with, neither do I live there nor do I speak the language.Sad

Unfortunately, the idea that some sort of trickery was used to meet unrealistic production goals is quite likely.
However, no matter how clever the FED staff disguised their never-produced "ghost cameras", I am pretty sure they were not able to circumvent fundamental mathematical principles, so with enough data any large-scale oddities should become visible. However if only single or a few serials were skipped, but this quite often, this would be very hard to detect. In this case we'd have to work our way around from the number of cameras found today.

By the way - finally over 100 posts!Smile
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I think we all agree... The history of a country cannot be reduced to some numbers collected 75 years after...

So, it would be good we could have some more details about the Plans during this period. Were they reached? What about the cameras? Certainly that time was not a period of lucidity about the production of goods: morale had to be absolutely preserved. At some periods, the lie was a doctrine, not only in the East...

I think like Bill that Zoom would be precious, if he can. Are there always real datas in the actual factory? It would be interesting to know...

We must not jump too easily to a conclusion. OK. My conclusion, for the moment, would be that the number of Princelle (2000 Fed S) is highly improbable. It's all I can do!

Amitiés. Jacques.
PS: Congrats for your 100 posts, Christian!


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Thanks!Smile
Truly, actual historical data would be extremely welcome!

Sorry for all my long posts, I just want to finish something I came up with in the past days that might be of interest.
About the number of cameras we find today vs. the total number we think were produced:

I was very surprised to come up with an estimated number of 10.000-14.000 FED-S cameras and a ratio of 10:1 for FED-S within FED'd', and even about 6-7:1 within FED'c'. Surely not every 6th FED'c' was an 'S'?

So far we have the serials of 115 FED-S cameras in the wiki.
If we assume a total number of FED-S cameras somewhere around 13.000 this would be a sample size 0,9% - meaning we'd have about 1% of all FED-S in the wiki.
For an estimate of 2.000 FED-S we'd have more than 17% of all cameras in the wiki which I think is unrealistic.

By type:
FED-S'c' - max. 46.000 cameras from total serial range, estimated 6.000 FED-S'c' from current statistics
38 entries in the wiki or about 0.6%

FED-S'd'- max.78.500 cameras from total serial range, estimated 7.500 FED-S'd' from current statistics
62 entries in the wiki or about 0.8%

FED-S'e' - max. 10.500 cameras from total serial range, no estimation but if we take the 'd' model, about 1000 FED-S'e'
15 entries in the wiki or about 1,5% - very rough estimate, more a guess!

What if we compare the wiki entries to other cameras we have serials of?

FED1'a' - max. 6.000 cameras from total serial range
45 entries in the wiki or at least 0.75%

FED1'e' incl 'S' - max. 10.500 cameras from total serial range
75 entries or at least 0,7%

FED NKAP - 1.800 estimated total cameras (based on what?)
11 entries or 0,6%

FED Zorki - max. 5.700 cameras from total serial range
37 entries or at least 0,6%

Fed1 Anniversary1654-1954 - 1.000 estimated total cameras (based on what?)
9 entries or 0,9%

Unfortunately all are rather special cameras and we do not know how many really were produced. But no matter what, surprisingly the sample size varies between 0,6% and 0,9% in all these cases.

Note that this neither tells us about possible gaps in serials nor about the total number of cameras produced. However what it does tell us is that based of the number of cameras found today, the numbering scheme of all these camera types seems to work similarly. If by far less cameras than serials actually were produced this should apply to all cameras.

Again, I am not trying to prove anything here, all I'm doing is extracting information that may be overlooked otherwise. Hope it helps.

Regards,
Christian
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Dear Christian,

Congratulations on 100 posts to the forum! Your charts and information are very valuable to the forum, collectors and probably the solving of some of the history of production! No one has done the work and great job that you have and I thank you for it.

Your last post is very interesting and helpful. Next I would wonder: How many cameras were lost during the war? How many were discarded or broken since the war (50 years since people seriously were collecting)? How many are still sitting around in attics and basements? How many in Russian and other collections where the collector has no interest in communicating data or experiences (I know there are many collectors like this)? Probably there is no way to estimate any of these hard questions, but in some way they play a part in our extrapolations of the data. Think about the story of how so many SPORT cameras were dumped in the river during the war so that the wood crates could be burned for heat and fire! If the story is true, that made a fairly common camera much more rare! And so many stories have not been told, like the exact way and which Zeiss parts were moved to Soviet Ukraine!

I would also like to know how the estimates of production numbers of certain cameras were obtained by Jean Loup Princelle and if he still believes them to be correct. I don't know him but if someone does, maybe they can ask him? It might help just to know, for example, if the 2,000 or less FED-S was just an estimate or from someone who actually knew this and told Princelle.

Regards, Bill

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... and how much Fed were thrown in a bin, just because they did not work, rather than repaired like a Leica...
I am going to ask Princelle about his estimations.

Jacques.
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Jacques, Princelle's opinion would be very valuable, I hope you can arrange this. I'd like to know how he estimated 2.000 FED-S cameras.

Surely the majority of FED1 cameras ever produced do not exist anymore, no wonder after such a long time. It would seem logical that on average more 'S', NKAP, and other special cameras survived than normal FEDs as these were more valuable and surely more cared for as well as often offered for sale.

Anyway, searching online we seem to find about 0,5-1% of the serial range in pretty much all FED1 cameras we have so far. I've also added FED-Zorki.

What's strange is that in FED1'e' we have 60 normal cameras and 15 FED-S, that means 1/4 of all FED'e' we have are 'S'!

I'll start collecting 'c' and 'd' serials, let's see how this turns out. I'd expect a much lower rate of serials found, but that's just my guess.

Regards,
Christian

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I sent Princelle a mail yesterday. Wait and see now...

About the number of S-s in the 1e range, it seems the S were not mounted with the same number rules as before, exactly as if the workers had used the last spare parts. This is valuable too for the great number of 1/1000th shutters amongst the Fed-Zorki.

All that makes sense if 1e were mounted at Krasnogorsk with the last prewar parts. Only a guess!

Another more simple possibility: it's easy -and interesting- to fake a 1e S with a cover of 1e and parts of S 1d...

Jacques.
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Too bad...Sad
But thanks for trying anyhow.

I am a bit disappointed by the amount of Type b-d cameras we have in the wiki so far, I expected to find more when searching online.
We'll see how things look in a couple of months but for now I think a FED-S : FED1 ratio of 1:10 seems quite realistic.

Please keep on adding serials!

Regards,
Christian
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I noticed that David's two 'Summar' lenses are mounted to FED-S cameras.

FED'c' ___ 65494 ____ 23814
FED'd' __ 132610 ____ 28957

The first one lies above the regression line of expected camera-lens serial relations but the 2nd one fits just perfectly with another 'normal' camera-lens pair being extremely close.

If we assume that the 2nd camera and lens do truly belong together, what's the point of creating a fake 'Leica' lens but pairing it with a normal FED camera?
Any ideas?

It would be interesting to know if David's camera #132610 is a regular one or if it was converted to look 'Leica-like' too.

Regards,
Christian
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Niko80

I know it is almost 7 years since you posted. But could you please reupload all pictures, it would be really great because the topic is really interesting.
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quote:
Originally posted by mirror

Niko80

I know it is almost 7 years since you posted. But could you please reupload all pictures, it would be really great because the topic is really interesting.



I support your request, Ihar. But I asked Christian to do so some years ago, and it sems it's impossible...
Really a pity.

Jacques.
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Cheers, Jacques!
'Impossible' is such a harsh word, let's call it 'difficult' instead! Big smile

First of all my apologies, I can't believe so many years passed since I last visited this forum.
I wanted to restore the graphs long ago but could not find them anymore and then outright forgot.
Been busy with a million other things in the past years and just today thought about checking on the state of FED1 research.

So while I cannot restore the old images - it makes no sense anyway as they are completely outdated - I can make new ones with the current state of wiki entries. As filehosts on the web don't live forever please save these graphs so you can repost them, maybe put them on the wiki. I made them for you, they are free for all.


Omitting all strange serials, we currently have 97 camera-lens pairs for the FED-S with FED-50/2 lens. 33x FED'c', 56x FED'd' and still only 8x FED'e'.



I cannot even remember the old graphs but I believe we see more or less the same here.
Camera-lens pairs concentrate along a vaguely logarithmic line in the center with outliers above for early cameras and more outliers below for middle and later ones. So far not very surprising.


Now let's divide the datapoints into models 'c' 'd' and 'e'.
Full dots are what I arbitrarily considered 'outliers'.



Immediately we see the 3 generations form distinct clusters.

FED'c' (red)
The earliest 'c' cameras make a nice cluster, a few late ones were fitted with lenses of very high s/n. Only two late cameras have unusually low serial lenses. Late 'c' cameras don't group well, there's quite an gap between #80.000 and #95.000

FED'd' (green)
Unsurprisingly the largest batch.
Interestingly from earliest to latest 'c' numbers we see camera-lens pairs clustering along a narrow perfectly strange line. There is no way this is a coincidence, I think we can safely assume these pairs were sold together. We see some lenses with unusually low s/n for early 'c' both high and low for the middle and as one would expect quite some lower s/n lenses for late models.

FED'e' (blue)
Unfortunately we only have eight camera-lens pairs for this enigmatic series, one additional lens has only 4 digits so I omitted it. And we have no lenses for the latest known 'e' models at all.
We have five pairs clustering along the same line as the FED'c', three of which are extremely close together. I would also see these as factory-matched but with so little samples it's hard to tell. Three more have far lower serial lenses, two of which are extremely low and more in the expected FED'c' range.


Now finally I again did some bad statistics and excluded all outlier-datapoints not clustering together and made a separate regression line for 'c', 'd' and 'e' cameras.



What we see immediately is that camera-lens pairs behave differently for 'c' and 'd' models.
The best fit through the 'c' cluster is much steeper but the cluster is fuzzier than the almost perfect straight line in 'd'.
What does this mean? It looks like when lens production started a lot of FED-S'c' were produced hence the gap between camera serials was smaller than in later 'd' models. I'll check this with normal FED1 against FED-S serial numbers. Also it looks like in the lens range #24.000 - 25.500 they had not enough cameras and these lenses ended up in later 'd' and even 'e' models?

Whatever happened, upon production of the FED'd' some different and fixed ratio between camera and lens serial was applied and strictly followed at least for the majority of cases, possibly until at least mid 'e'. The 'd' and 'e' regression lines are basically identical but the data for 'e' cameras is very poor. I did exclude the 'e' with the highest known lens serial number above 33500 as it was only listed in the lens wiki. It falls well within the 'd' line but would mess up the data for 'e' because we only have 5 samples.

Also note that pairs off the regression line never cluster together, they are more or less randomly distributed and far apart. In my opinion this indicates these pairs were not formed in a factory in an organized manner but probably much later as repair or upgrade with random available parts at different places. Maybe even cobbled together recently from parts for sale. We don't know what happened but it’s relatively safe to say it was not an intentional and organized matching of lens and camera serial numbers in the cases of these outliers.

Still keep in mind we have only 97 samples which, given an assumed production number of 13.000 FED-S and 50mm f/2 lenses is about 0,75%. Not great, not terrible. The clusters are highly significant in any case.

So, what do you think?
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Thank you, Jacques!

I noticed the wiki entry for FED 50mm f/2 lens is a bit behind and missing a lot of entries seen for FED S. Also there are two conflicting entries:
FED 50/2 #21535 listed as lens only but with camera # 63146 in FED S wiki
FED 50/2 #26054 listed as lens only but with camera #123272 in FED S wiki
How to resolve this?

Next I looked into all available FED S cameras.
Currently (but lacking your latest additions) we have:

FED S'c': 56
FED S'd': 83
FED S'e': 24
Sum: 163

Assuming 12.000 cameras that's about 1.3%, a substantial sample size for statistics. Of every 100 cameras produced we have 13 in the wiki.



Nothing out of the ordinary here, no big gaps.

Let's look at the models in detail.
I plotted them diagonally get a better spread of datapoints but it's still just a line of camera serials. Hope that's not confusing. The units on x and y axis are the same. Note the scale is not the same between models c, d, e as they occupy different serial ranges. So the gaps seen here are NOT the same size!

FED S'c'
56 cameras from #55739 to #93609 = a range of 37870 serials



No idea if this has any significance but what we see here is a mix of small tightly grouped batches and gaps in the first half of the serial range. I'm inclined o say this is not a coincidence.
In the later serials we see no such batches, generally less cameras and quite a gap between #85000 and #90000 with a single camera in the middle - #86826 which has the unusually late lens #27821.
The largest gap is 3037 serials.
There is also some gap between the last 'c' #93609 and the first 'd' #96152 over 2543 serials.

FED S'd'
83 cameras from #96152 to #173444 = a range of 77292 serials



There are also some tightly grouped batches separated by gaps but it's less clear.
The gaps are the largest seen in FED S with a hole between #148500 and #156300 with again a single camera in the middle and again it has an odd Sonnar lens. The largest gap is 4016 between #152345 and #156361 but there are several gaps of 3000-4000 serials throughout the range.
There is virtually no gap between 'd' and 'e', only 535 between the last 'd' #173444 and the first 'e' #173979.

FED S'e'
24 cameras from #173979 to #183892 = a range of only 9913 serials



Not much we can say with so few samples, there are 3 larger gaps but the biggest one is only 1752 between #177597 and #179349.

Next I'll look at those peculiar batches in detail and compare a range of 10000 serials of each model at the same scale. This should make it easier to see patterns.
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Hi all!!

If I can help, here are my Fed S with lenses:

1c: 65494 with 23814 2/50mm
1c: 75914 with 23285 2/50mm
1d: 132162 with 29057 2/50mm
1d: 139695 with 30219 2/50mm
1d: 140716 with 24786 2/50mm
1d: 147763 with 29974 2/50mm
1d: 148486 with 30713 2/50mm

And 3 more 2/50mm not mounted on bodies

25160
30100
31894 (could be 37894....)

Fred

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